Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 2.204821 2.330333 2.466015 2.624912 2.807679 3.013628 3.266732
2025-04-27 2.102045 2.269570 2.459715 2.695476 2.986083 3.341843 3.827109
2025-05-04 2.000699 2.189867 2.411550 2.697443 3.068108 3.552392 4.275263
2025-05-11 1.923434 2.127550 2.372808 2.699349 3.141255 3.753439 4.751672
2025-05-18 1.833351 2.041341 2.295254 2.640425 3.121249 3.815544 5.026606
2025-05-25 1.776369 1.991273 2.257961 2.628522 3.161145 3.967102 5.492558
2025-06-01 1.724700 1.944193 2.220334 2.611267 3.188838 4.101070 5.972715
2025-06-08 1.677441 1.899844 2.182921 2.590190 3.206709 4.219568 6.470578
2025-06-15 1.652093 1.881983 2.178830 2.614674 3.295521 4.475092 7.425772
2025-06-22 1.590446 1.814153 2.103973 2.531515 3.204385 4.385363 7.432581
2025-06-29 1.561392 1.787937 2.084310 2.527709 3.241391 4.545279 8.270924
2025-07-06 1.518378 1.741673 2.035063 2.476779 3.195076 4.532305 8.554752
2025-07-13 1.502901 1.732657 2.038435 2.507587 3.294730 4.849943 10.458616
2025-07-20 1.499140 1.738952 2.063161 2.572472 3.462186 5.370162 14.814958
2025-07-27 1.476526 1.718597 2.048765 2.574499 3.515047 5.638507 19.338095
2025-08-03 1.455363 1.699388 2.034988 2.576283 3.567323 5.925107 27.959839
2025-08-10 1.419781 1.659171 1.989086 2.522949 3.506218 5.878261 31.068041
2025-08-17 1.398071 1.637585 1.969668 2.512159 3.528949 6.086866 52.753320
2025-08-24 1.376223 1.615153 1.948126 2.496505 3.540072 6.266485 167.156014
2025-08-31 1.354568 1.592393 1.925281 2.477368 3.542015 6.420012 NaN
2025-09-07 1.345033 1.586305 1.926907 2.499598 3.633681 6.927199 NaN
2025-09-14 1.310521 1.544137 1.873107 2.424003 3.506340 6.581660 NaN
2025-09-21 1.295961 1.529968 1.861195 2.420537 3.537631 6.860592 NaN